Australians are guaranteed to head to the polls — or submit postal votes — in the first five months of next year.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese maintains he intends to serve a full three-year term, and as parliament wrapped up for the year, so did the chances of a 2024 election.
With many struggling to afford the upcoming festive season, the cost of living is front of mind for families.
And experts say it’s front and centre for politicians too as they decide the best time to call the election.
Here’s what you need to know about next year’s federal election.
What’s the latest possible federal election date?
Unlike other parts of the world, where the date is set, the exact timing of Australia’s federal election is up to Albanese.
The constitution requires elections to be held no later than 68 days after the House of Representatives terms expire.
With those terms ending on 25 July 2025, the election must be held by 27 September. However, since half of the Senate’s terms end on 30 June 2025, an election must take place before then.
Considering procedural factors and the tradition of holding house and half-Senate elections together, the latest possible date for the next federal election is 17 May 2025.
What about an early March election?
Experts have narrowed down the date of next year’s federal election to sometime between March and May.
With over 40 years of experience advising Labor, Bruce Hawker, special counsel at Fitzpatrick and Company Advisory, “struggles to see an early election” in March.
The Labor Party campaign veteran told SBS News the government would have to wait until after the state election in Western Australia on 8 March.
“I think if there is ill will in the Western Australian electorate, they’d probably want it to be vented against a state government rather than themselves,” Hawker said.
He explained this would also avoid mixing campaigns and state and federal issues in the minds of voters.
“I think if it was to be held in March … it would be based on an assumption that the interest rates were not going to come down, and the economy could sink a little further into the red than it otherwise might be,” Hawker said.
What issues could determine the election date?
High mortgages and cost of living pressures are top concerns for both major parties and voters.
Hawker said the next two Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meetings — on 18 February and 1 April — will be crucial in determining when the government sets the election, with the hope that Australians will experience a reprieve from rising costs before heading to the polls.
“If they do start to bring down interest rates, that’s good news for the government, and they would probably be holding out for that,” he said.
A key strategy for Labor is the option to resume parliament and deliver an early budget on 25 March, which according to Labor adviser Bruce Hawker, could provide them with a strong platform to campaign on if the budget is favourable. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas
A lever at Labor’s disposal is the option to resume parliament and deliver an early budget on 25 March.
“If they bring down a good budget for themselves, that’s something that they can do and campaign on,” Hawker said.
“And then you would think that they would be looking to bring out as many good things as possible in a pre-election budget which would make people happy.”
If that were the case, then an election campaign could kick off in late March or early April.
“I think the problem for the government at the moment is that the cost of living is running very high, and unless the RBA brings down interest rates, then the government is going to have to go to an election dealing with the reality that people are doing it pretty tough,” he said.
“So that is more reason why I think they’ll want to call the election later, rather than earlier, and have a budget in there that further relieves pressure on household budgets.”
Graeme Orr is a law professor at the University of Queensland who specialises in the law of politics. He agrees the economy will be crucial to the upcoming election.
“They’re often looking at, you know, how grumpy are people? Have we had a budget recently with some good policies and nice stimulants, but most of all, what’s the economy like? … Swing voters, [think] are we better off or worse off than three years ago?” he told SBS News.
“Most people stick to the party they’ve known for a long time, or they vote according to certain values that are really quite stuck. But really, the parties are thinking about swing voters, marginal seats.”
What happens when the election is called?
To kick off the official election campaign, Albanese will visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn to request the dissolution of parliament and the issuance of writs for the election.
Orr said unless there are extraordinary circumstances, Mostyn will start the process “almost straight away”.
“There’s a formal document called a writ, which is issued to tell the Electoral Commission, hey, election time, guys,” he said.
“Here are the key dates, dates to close the roll so you get seven days’ grace from the issue of the writ to update your enrollment, which is really important for young people, the mobile society and also new immigrants.”
According to the AEC, 17.8 million Australians are enrolled to vote at over 7,000 polling stations across the country on election day. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas
Orr explains the Electoral Act ensures there is a minimal 33-day campaign, and while it could go longer, it’s not what people want.
“We like relatively short campaigns, this American approach, where the campaign goes on, including the primaries, well over a year, and costs billions of dollars just doesn’t fit our more pragmatic model,” he said.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) noted that the federal election, with its multiple voting options and high enrollment rates, is “one of the largest and most complex” logistical events in the country.
According to the AEC, 17.8 million Australians — 98 per cent of eligible voters — are enrolled to vote at over 7,000 polling stations nationwide on election day.
All voter enrollments must be up to date, including changes to address or name. Updates can be made via
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SBS
