Australia: When will you get the COVID-19 vaccine?
The first people to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in Australia will receive their first jab today.
It’s a huge logistical challenge to vaccinate everybody in Australia who wants to be, so the Government is grouping people based on things such as their job and how vulnerable they are to the disease.
The group you’re in determines when you’ll be able to get the vaccine.
Answer these questions to find out which vaccine group you will be in
Which roles are considered priority?
Who is critical and high risk?
Which conditions are relevant?
Note: responses to these questions are not saved.
Ok so that’s where you sit, but you probably have a few more questions.
- How did we come up with these estimates?
- Why am I so far down the queue?
- Which vaccine will I get?
- Who is in each of the groups?
- How will I know when it’s my turn?
- Will family members of high priority people get the vaccine at the same time?
How did we come up with these estimates?
All the calculations here are based on published government strategy documents and targets explicitly stated by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Health Minister Greg Hunt or their spokespeople.
Like all estimates, we should be cautious with them.
The first delivery of the Pfizer vaccine — the most difficult to deliver and for which we have a smaller supply contract — arrived in Australia yesterday, with the first vaccinations set to be given on Monday.
The Therapeutic Goods Administration today announced it had approved the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, which can be produced in Australia.
In addition to potential hurdles in approval and supply, there has been mixed success delivering vaccinations in parts of the world where it’s already started.
The US, for example, despite now managing to deliver a huge 1.3 million doses per day, has had significant challenges around communicating with priority groups, service providers and things as simple as booking appointments.
Some countries where vaccinations have already started are achieving remarkably fast rollouts. Israel, the country with the fastest on a per-capita basis, has been delivering more than 100,000 doses per day and the UK has topped 400,000 doses per day.
To achieve the government’s stated goal of offering everybody in Australia a vaccination by the end of October, the rollout would need to ramp up quickly to a rate exceeding what most other countries have managed, on a per capita basis.
The exact rate required will depend on things like how quickly the rollout gets going and the percentage of people who ultimately opt to be vaccinated, but could easily be upward of 200,000 doses per day. The longer the ramp-up takes, the higher the peak delivery rate would need to be.
A group of researchers from University of New South Wales has said that while achieving the government’s goals is possible, it’s not a certainty and “dedicated large-scale vaccination sites” may be required to get there, something the government hasn’t yet outlined as part of the plan.
Why am I so far down the queue?
If you find yourself further down the vaccine queue than you’d hoped, remember that’s maybe for good reason. The government’s strategy is designed to prioritise the most at-risk people.
“We are ensuring we first protect those who need it most. These are the people who are most at risk of exposure and severe disease,” a Queensland Health spokesperson said.
Which vaccine will I get?
This is a common question posed by ABC News readers. A spokesperson for the federal health department told us that “specific vaccines will be administered based on availability and subject to any determination made by the Therapeutic Goods Administration”.
Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has previously said most Australians will get the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
Those people in the highest priority groups are more likely to receive the Pfizer vaccine.
Who is in each of the groups?
The Government has divided Australian residents in to five major priority groups, each with up to six sub-groups.
Group 1
| Sub-group | Number of people |
|---|---|
| Quarantine and border workers | 70,000 |
| Front-line health care workers in priority sub-groups | 100,000 |
| Aged and disability care workers | 318,000 |
| Aged and disability care residents | 190,000 |
Group 2
| Sub-group | Number of people |
|---|---|
| Adults aged 80 years and older | 1,045,000 |
| Adults aged 70-79 years | 1,858,000 |
| Other health care workers | 953,000 |
| Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people 55 years and older | 87,000 |
| Adults 18 years and older with underlying health conditions, including those with a disability | 2,000,000 |
| Critical and high risk workers including defence, emergency services and meat processing | 196,000 |
Group 3
| Sub-group | Number of people |
|---|---|
| Adults aged 60-69 years | 2,650,000 |
| Adults aged 50-59 years | 3,080,000 |
| Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people 18 – 54 years | 387,000 |
| Other critical and high risk workers | 453,000 |
Group 4
| Sub-group | Number of people |
|---|---|
| All other adults | 6,643,000 |
Plus catching up on unvaccinated Australians from higher priority groups above.
Group 5
| Sub-group | Number of people |
|---|---|
| People under 18 years if recommended | 5,670,000 |
You might have some questions around specifically how the priority groups outlined above are defined and the people in each group identified. We did too, so we asked the health departments in each state and territory as well as the federal department.
Unfortunately, their responses didn’t make it much clearer.
Some of the states and territories indicated that they’re working with the Commonwealth to nut out the details, and all of them referred us to the Federal Government for further clarification.
A spokesperson for the federal department said: “Access to vaccines will be provided to those identified by [the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation] as priority for vaccination, wherever these priority groups may be located.”
How will I know when it’s my turn?
The federal government says it’s running a public information campaign across television, radio and digital platforms to tell Australians when, how and where to get the vaccine.
It says Australians will be able to check online if they are part of the current priority group at that time. There will also be a COVID-19 Vaccination Helpline for advice.
Will family members of high priority people get the vaccine at the same time?
In short, no. The government says family members of high priority groups will get the vaccine according to the group they are personally in.
But if a person with a disability is unable to be vaccinated (if, for example, they refuse the vaccination or have risk factors which mean getting the vaccine would not be recommended), their families and carers will be considered a priority.
Notes
- The government has stated a target of 80,000 doses per week to start, ramping up to 4 million doses by the end of March, and everyone who wants a vaccine to have been offered one by the end of October 2021.
- For the purpose of calculating when you might be offered the vaccine, we’ve taken ‘late February’ to mean 22 February. For simplicity, we have assumed a flat rate of vaccine delivery whereas in reality, the targets above suggest the government expects a ramp up period of about six weeks as capacity builds and supplies become available.
- We have assumed a consistent vaccine acceptance rate of 70 per cent. This is based on statements by government figures that they expect vaccine acceptance to be high, as well as interviews with vaccination experts who shared that expectation and cited surveys showing around 80 per cent of adults intend to get the vaccine when it’s offered. This is broadly in line with recent surveys, including one commissioned by the ABC. However, experts also cautioned that it’s unlikely all people who say they intend to be vaccinated ultimately will be.
- The date estimates have been made using the ranked priority and size of sub-groups in each phase of the rollout, so different people in the same major group may see different date estimates depending on their rank within the group.
