Professor Kofman said Australian banks have been very profitable for a very long time.
“It’s partly a reflection of the market structure of the banks, where you’ve got four pretty powerful banks.
“That kind of market structure doesn’t instil a lot of confidence in a lot of competition between those banks. So there’s not that much pressure compared to very competitive markets.”
Professor Kofman said banks would stop recording high profits if there is a significant impact of higher interest rates on the ability of banking customers to pay off their home loans.
There are slight indications that these large profits may have missed some investor expectations and that bank profits can’t continue at the same pace.
ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott has warned “the next six months will be more difficult than the last” given competition for mortgages amid a refinancing boom.
Westpac CEO Peter King flagged thinner profit margins for the bank in future and outlined a cost-cutting target, citing inflation.
Australia’s ‘big four’ banks have profited from rising inflation during a national cost of living crisis, taking home a combined $16 billion in six months. Source: AAP / Joel Carrett
There are some other signs banks are feeling the pressure, according to Sally Tindall, the director of research at financial comparison site Rate City.
“Towards the beginning of the rate hikes, we saw the banks put discounts on the table for new customers, in order to attract new business because Australians are in the middle of a refinancing boom,” she said.
“In recent weeks, however, they’ve walked back part of those new customer discounts, because they’re, the balance between the cost of borrowing money and providing those discounts to large numbers of customers has taken its toll and they’ve walked some of them back.”
Ms Tindall said a lot of Australians have superannuation invested into big banks, so they are a shareholder and “record breaking profits will benefit their super balances as well.”
However Greg Jericho from the Australia Institute said it’s small comfort to consumers that their super is growing, because the money can’t be accessed until people retire and they are feeling the heat of interest rates right now.
Mr Jericho said that banks aren’t the only companies doing very well out of rising inflation.
“What we’ve seen is that actually, since 2020, basically since the pandemic, all but four industries have seen profits grow faster than wages, ” he said.
“It really highlights what we’ve been arguing which is that corporate profits have been the big drivers of inflation, and cost of living. It’s not through strong wages, growth or anything like that.”
Mr Jericho said the Australia Institute has been pushing for the government to introduce a windfall tax on excessive profits.
“When they’re making these profits due to things that really have nothing to do with their business – they had nothing to do with the Reserve Bank raising interest rates, but they’re the ones benefiting from it – we would argue that the government should be taxing them at a higher rate.”
He said this tax revenue could then be used to support low-income people who are struggling with mortgage payments or higher rents that have come about because of increased interest rates.
SBS